CONTRARIAN TOOL
Allow us to introduce you to our latest tool, the Contrarian indicator.
This tool was designed specifically to reveal imbalances on the lines of a
game or match, especially when there is too much Public interest on one side
of the game, which can lead to CONTRARIAN bets (i.e. placed against the
Public).
WHAT DOES CONTRARIAN MEAN: Contrarian betting, also known as betting
against the public, fading the public or simply "going contrarian," is a
profitable betting strategy for one simple reason: more often than not, the
Public loses in the end. In the betting world, being a Contrarian means
betting against the public, the average Joes that usually pick games based
on gut instinct, bias and rarely win. Year after year, Vegas and the
sportsbooks make unfathomable amounts of money and the vast majority of the
profits come directly from betting against the average Joe. As a result, the
unpopular team getting the minority of bets provides much more value than
the popular team getting the majority of bets. By going contrarian, bettors
can extract additional value by capitalizing on public bias, taking
advantage of shaded and inflated lines and getting better numbers in the
form of additional points or sweetened payouts. Best of all, contrarian
bettors place themselves on the side of the house. And in the end, the house
always wins.
Now, those of you familiar with our Anti-Vegas tool will notice
similarities with our Contrarian tool, such as the Line Reversals and Arrows
which denote sudden changes in odds, etc. However, the Contrarian indicator
goes further than just Line Reversals! Instead of displaying only public
percentages, the tool provides you with detailed stats about the Tickets and
actual Money ($) being laid down on either team, plus it also calculates
interesting details such as ALL Public Ticket (which includes stats from
both the Moneylines & Spreadlines), as well as Public and Cash ratios. When
the Public Money percentage exceeds 85%, this means a new Contrarian
opportunity has appeared and it will be denoted by the Contrarian icon.
You will also notice a new icon called the Vegas Trap, which indicates
that this game is possibly being manipulated by Smart Money from the Vegas
sharks & heavy hitters, in such a way as to lead the Public into placing
their money on a bet which is most likely to fail, thereby making profits
for Vegas in the long-run instead. When this icon coincides with the
Contrarian icon for the same team, chances are the opposite team is almost
guaranteed to Win!
TIP: You could use the Contrarian tool to directly place bets against the
indicated team, but it's also wise to take other factors into consideration
before blindly placing your bet. For e.g., when the Contrarian icon appears
on a particular team row, it implies you will bet AGAINST that team (usually
the Favorite). But before you do so, take a quick look at the number of
Tickets for that particular team, and if it exceeds the tickets for the
opposing team, then bet ON the opposite team or player. This is just ONE of
the ways in which you can use the Contrarian indicator as a filter or bet
qualifier.
VALUE BETS based on Contrarian Bets and Kelly Criterion
And finally, if you scroll below the main Contrarian table, you will
notice another table with a summary of the best VALUE BETS that are selected
based on our proprietary Contrarian Bets and the Kelly factor. The Kelly
Criterion is a bet-sizing technique which balances both risk and reward for
the advantage gambler. It determines the optimal % of your total capital
(bankroll) that you can bet on a single outcome or game. The Value bets
listed in this table can be either on the Moneyline (ML) or the Spreadline.
And the amount you must bet is indicated in terms of the Unit stake size,
for e.g., if the 'Optimal Stake Part' shows 0.88 and you have calculated
your Unit Stake size to be $100, then you must place 0.88 x $100 = $88 on
that particular Value Bet
